Latest track forecast for Hurricane Lee, briefly a Category 5

Hurricane Lee weakened slightly Friday to a Category 4 after rapidly gaining strength the day before, when it leaped from a low-end Category 1 to a monstrous Category 5. It is set to remain at least a Category 4 over the next four to five days as it progresses to the northwest of the Leeward Islands.

Lee is expected to turn to the north by the middle of next week and could eventually affect Bermuda, the northeastern United States and the Canadian Maritimes. How severe any effects on land will be is still unknowable because of uncertainties about the storm’s track and future strength.

Unexpectedly hostile high-altitude winds weakened Lee on Friday, dropping it to a high-end Category 4. Before that, the National Hurricane Center had issued one of its most aggressive forecasts, predicting that Lee would have maximum sustained winds of 180 mph by evening. But it lowered its expectation in its 11 a.m. update.

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When Lee reached Category 5 strength Thursday night, it did so farther southeast than any Atlantic hurricane on record. Only about 6 percent of all Atlantic hurricanes ever become a Category 5.

Hurricane #Lee is in elite company tonight. Fewer than 1% of all tropical cyclone "fixes" ever attain Category 5 strength. Lee is the farthest southeast we've ever observed a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since records began 172 years ago. Lorenzo (2019) the farthest east. pic.twitter.com/r0hFSDsruN

Lee also became one of the fastest-intensifying Atlantic hurricanes on record, its peak winds increasing from 80 to 165 mph in a day. This rate of strengthening was the most extreme on record for any Atlantic storm east of the Caribbean, according to Kieran Bhatia, a meteorologist for the reinsurance brokerage Guy Carpenter. Only a few storms in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have intensified more quickly.

Rapid intensification is made more likely by warmer waters and the effects of human-caused climate change, and Lee is passing over record-warm waters.

After Lee makes its northward turn, Bermuda could feel its effects, five to eight days from now, while any effects in the northeastern United States and the Canadian Maritimes are at least nine or 10 days away.

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The Hurricane Center notes that “it is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have.”

Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents will plague beaches along the East Coast of the United States starting early next week. Before that, the shores of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas will take a beating starting Friday or during the weekend.

Incredible waves, as high 45 to 50 feet, have been detected near the storm center.

Lee now

As of 5 p.m. Friday, Category 4 Hurricane Lee was centered 500 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds were estimated around 150 mph; the threshold for Category 5 status starts at 157 mph.

Satellite imagery and hurricane hunter aircraft revealed that Lee weakened some Friday, its peak winds dropping 15 mph. The Hurricane Center said dry air and wind shear — or change in wind direction with altitude — was disrupting the storm’s circulation. The shear wasn’t strong, but it was enough to work against Lee and try to knock the storm off-kilter.

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Moreover, Lee’s eye had become less defined, and the air pressure in the middle had risen somewhat. That sort of “fills in” the vortex a bit, weakening it very slightly.

The forecast

The shear and dry air could continue to modestly weaken the storm for the next 12 to 24 hours.

By late in the weekend, the Hurricane Center said, this shear may relax. Moreover, Lee will move beneath a zone of clockwise, or anticyclonic, flow aloft. That high-altitude pattern will enhance Lee’s outflow, or exhaust, evacuating “spent” air away from the system.

Lee could strengthen again, much in the way that placing a fan over a campfire allows more warm, humid air to enter from below. The movement of air away from Lee’s top intensifies the storm.

“Regardless of exact details of the intensity forecast, confidence is high that Lee will remain a powerful hurricane during the next several days,” the Hurricane Center wrote.

Eventually, Lee will turn to the north, steered between a blocking ridge of clockwise-spinning high pressure over the open Atlantic and a counterclockwise-spinning low over the Lower 48. The strength and exact placement of both features, which remain unknown, will determine how far west Lee is steered.

Bermuda could get scraped by the storm’s eastern side between Wednesday and Friday of next week. A more direct hit — which is less probable — could occur if the storm track shifts eastward.

It does appear probable that Lee will eventually strike the Canadian Maritimes but will lose some intensity as it moves over cooler water. It could also affect New England, especially if its track shifts to the west.

“Continue to monitor updates to Lee’s forecast during the next several days,” the Hurricane Center wrote.

Jason Samenow contributed to this report.

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