It was a bounce-back Saturday last week for these picks, which went 3-1. Things are looking pretty good at 21-15 on the season. Let’s keep trending in the right direction.
This column will give out four picks per week: the game of the week, a favorite, an underdog and a wild card, which can be anything (another favorite or underdog in a game that might be flying under the radar or a total, for instance). Hopefully we’ll all be in good shape by the time the clock hits zero at the national championship game in Houston on Jan. 8.
All spreads were taken Wednesday from DraftKings Sportsbook. All times Eastern.
The game of the week
No. 3 Michigan at No. 10 Penn State
The pick: under 46 points
The under may seem like a daunting choice here because the Wolverines have scored at least 45 points by themselves in four of their past five games while the Nittany Lions are coming off a 51-point outing against Maryland. But this game might feature the nation’s two best defenses: Penn State is No. 1 in defensive success rate, and Michigan is No. 2. In terms of expected points allowed per play, that is reversed: The Wolverines are No. 1, and the Nittany Lions are No. 2.
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Those defenses will go up against at least partially flawed offenses. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar struggles to complete longer throws, and the Nittany Lions have had just 18 pass plays gain at least 20 yards (119th in the nation). Michigan has given up just 13 such passing plays, which ranks second nationally, and one has to think Penn State could be constantly behind the sticks.
Likewise, Michigan’s running game has struggled of late: The Wolverines have not exceeded 3.9 yards per carry in their past three games. Those contests were against Indiana, Michigan State and Purdue, teams not known for having particularly stout rushing defenses. Penn State is allowing just 60.3 rushing yards per game and two yards per carry, which both trail only James Madison nationally. The Nittany Lions have the ability to make Michigan’s offense even more one-dimensional than it already is.
Michigan and Penn State are the only teams in the nation not to allow any points in the third quarter, and their defenses have me betting on the under.
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The favorite
Arizona State at UCLA
9 p.m., Pac-12 Network
The pick: UCLA -17
The Sun Devils have been absolutely clobbered by injuries, particularly along the offensive line and at quarterback. Somehow, they remained competitive in one-score losses to California, Colorado and Washington and actually defeated Washington State on Oct. 28. But things caught up to them last weekend in a 55-3 loss at Utah, when they gained only 83 yards without their top four offensive tackles. Starting quarterback Trenton Bourguet left with a leg injury during Arizona State’s first drive but was forced back when replacement Jacob Conover — who began the season as the fourth-string quarterback — was ineffective. At one point in the third quarter, running back Cam Skattebo was taking snaps at quarterback.
It’s unknown who will play quarterback for Arizona State on Saturday (Bourguet was on crutches after the Utah game), and UCLA isn’t exactly the team you want to face with question marks at the sport’s most important position. The Bruins’ defense is roughly on par with Utah’s, which is to say it’s very good. Even in this past weekend’s 27-10 letdown against surging Arizona, UCLA managed three sacks; it’s averaging 3.8, which trails only James Madison and Penn State. And if Arizona State wants to take pressure off its quarterback by handing it off to Skattebo — or, if things get truly dire again, having Skattebo play quarterback — that might not work, either. UCLA is allowing 2.3 yards per carry (third nationally).
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Arizona State did what it could to triage its injuries, but it’s past the point where the Sun Devils can remain competitive, especially against a team that’s elite on one side of the ball. Take the Bruins.
The underdog
No. 15 Oklahoma State at Central Florida
3:30 p.m., ESPN
The pick: Central Florida +2.5
The Cowboys are one of the buzzier teams in the country after last weekend’s Bedlam win over rival Oklahoma, their fifth straight victory and fifth straight point-spread cover. Oklahoma State leaped seven spots to No. 15 in the College Football Playoff rankings after that victory but is only a short favorite over a UCF team that is 4-5 and just snapped a five-game losing streak with Saturday’s win over Cincinnati.
So Oklahoma State is a no-brainer, right? Wrong! Don’t take the bait here.
The Cowboys — who, lest we forget, lost at home to South Alabama in September — have been one of the luckier teams in the country. In an Oct. 14 win over Kansas, Oklahoma State got the ball in Jayhawks territory on each of its last three drives thanks to an interception and two turnovers on downs, helping seal the victory. In last week’s win over the Sooners, Oklahoma had four drives stall out in Oklahoma State territory with zero points, and the Sooners averaged nearly two yards more per play than the Cowboys. Oklahoma State’s postgame win expectancy in that one, based on the game’s underlying statistics, was just 37.9 percent.
Cowboys running back Ollie Gordon II gets all the attention as the nation’s leading rusher, and the Golden Knights’ rushing defense has been awful, but UCF has a standout running back of its own in RJ Harvey, who had eight runs of at least 10 yards in last week’s 164-yard outing against Cincinnati. Oklahoma State has given up 50 rushing plays of at least 10 yards (104th nationally) and 14 rushing plays of at least 20 yards (97th nationally), so Harvey could easily find room to roam.
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I don’t think the Cowboys are as good as their 7-2 record — they’re a few bounces away from being a five-win team — and a cover as road favorites one week after a huge win is a lot to ask.
The wild card
No. 7 Texas at TCU
7:30 p.m., ABC
The pick: under 53.5 points
College football statistical analyst Parker Fleming has developed a measure of productive drives that he calls Eckel (named after former Navy fullback Kyle Eckel, who did a lot of heavy lifting during the longest drive in college football history at the 2004 Emerald Bowl). Fleming defines a productive drive as one that features a first and 10 inside the opponent’s 40-yard line or a drive that ends on a big-play touchdown.
As you can see from the chart Fleming compiled for Texas-TCU, the Longhorns and Horned Frogs rank in the top 20 in terms of generating productive drives: 52.9 percent of Texas’s drives have been considered productive, with TCU’s offense right behind at 52.8 percent. But both teams are absolutely dismal when it comes to generating points from those drives. Texas gets 3.13 points per Eckel drive, which ranks 104th nationally. TCU is a little better at 3.19 points per Eckel drive, which ranks 98th nationally.
As you can also see from the chart, both defenses are good (TCU) to great (Texas) at preventing teams from scoring on their Eckel drives.
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Though Quinn Ewers will be back at quarterback for Texas after missing two games with a shoulder injury, the Horned Frogs will have to go with Josh Hoover, who has as many interceptions as touchdown passes (seven each) since taking over for injured quarterback Chandler Morris. Texas’s defense, one of the nation’s best, could keep this game low-scoring by itself, and each team’s inability to convert good drives into touchdowns is just an added bonus. Take the under.
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